South Orange County Real Estate in November 2026: Comparing San Clemente, Dana Point & San Juan Capistrano (Medians from $1,426,508 to $2,088,547 as Rates Fall to 7.18%)

At a glance 📊 San Clemente, Dana Point, and San Juan Capistrano all recorded year-over-year price gains in the latest Redfin data. San Clemente moved fastest, Dana Point had the tightest supply and highest price per square foot, and San Juan Capistrano offered the lowest citywide median and the only increase in active listings. Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed average eased to 7.18% on November 5, 2026.

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November 2026 market comparison 🏡

The latest city figures are Redfin’s rolling three-month periods ending October 2026, updated in November. They are not October-only sales results. All three citywide median sale prices increased year over year, but the pace, inventory and time to sell differed.

Across the three rolling periods, Redfin recorded 160 sales in San Clemente, 98 in Dana Point, and 93 in San Juan Capistrano. The figures show distinct conditions: San Clemente had the shortest market time, Dana Point had the largest year-over-year inventory decline, and San Juan Capistrano was the only city where active listings grew.

Three cities, three market profiles 🌊

San Clemente: fastest pace

San Clemente combined the strongest annual median price gain, 13.0%, with a 40-day median time on market. Active listings were down 6.0% year over year. The citywide median was $1,870,199, while the single-family median was $2,161,267 across 116 sales. Condos and co-ops had a $1,199,674 median across 32 sales. The townhouse median was $1,109,932, based on six sales, a small sample.

For buyers, prepare early and compare recently sold homes with the specific property you’re considering. For sellers, the shorter median market time points to continued movement for homes priced in line with current competition.

Dana Point: tightest supply and highest price per square foot

Dana Point recorded the highest citywide median sale price at $2,088,547 and the highest price per square foot at $1,067.98. Active listings fell 16.9% year over year to 221, while median market time was 42 days. Single-family homes had a $2,428,615 median across 60 sales; condos and co-ops had a $1,305,645 median across 28 sales. The townhouse median was $2,069,872, based on three sales, a small sample.

With supply tighter than in the other two cities, buyers should have financing and priorities organized before making offers. Sellers can use current comparable sales to set a realistic price from the start.

San Juan Capistrano: lower entry points and more choice

San Juan Capistrano’s $1,426,508 citywide median was the lowest of the three. It was also the only city with rising inventory: active listings increased 7.9% year over year to 191. Median market time was 46 days. Single-family homes had a $1,948,888 median across 64 sales. Condos and co-ops had a $944,743 median across 25 sales. Townhouses had an $809,950 median across three sales, a small sample.

More active listings can give you additional properties to compare and may create more room to discuss terms. Local context matters: San Juan Capistrano includes a historic downtown area and equestrian communities, while coastal access is nearby. Review the details of each location and property before deciding.

Rates eased, but compare the full payment 💡

Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported a 30-year fixed average of 7.18% on November 5, 2026, the third consecutive weekly decline: 7.40% on October 15, 7.32% on October 22, and 7.24% on October 29. The 15-year fixed average was 6.57%. A year earlier, the 30-year average was 6.22%. These are national weekly survey averages, not individual loan offers.

Payment illustration only, not a quote: For a San Clemente single-family median of $2,161,267, a 20% down payment and a $1,729,014 loan at 7.18% over 30 years produces an estimated principal-and-interest payment of about $7,731 per month. At 7.40%, the illustration is about $7,901, roughly $170 more per month. A San Juan Capistrano condo at its $944,743 median, with 10% down and an $850,269 loan at 7.18%, illustrates about $5,760 per month in principal and interest. These examples exclude taxes, insurance, and other costs. Ask a lender for figures based on your finances and loan terms.

What the broader market adds 📍

National demand indicators were cooler. Realtor.com Economic Research’s October 2026 report, published November 4, said national contract signings were down 17.0% year over year, pending inventory was down 10.5%, and new listings were down 7.5%. Those are national figures, not South Orange County city data.

For the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim metro, which contains South Orange County, Realtor.com reported active listings up 9.9% year over year and a $1,000,000 median list price, down 9.0%. This metro context differs from the Redfin city sale medians above. 📈

Buyer and seller takeaways ✅

If you’re buying: San Juan Capistrano currently has the lowest citywide median, lower condo and townhouse medians, and growing inventory. San Clemente and Dana Point have tighter supply and faster median timelines, so be ready to act when a suitable home appears. Get support with your home search and purchase.

If you’re selling: All three city medians rose year over year, from 7.5% in San Juan Capistrano to 13.0% in San Clemente. The national slowdown makes accurate pricing and preparation important. Compare your property with relevant recent local sales, not just citywide medians. 🏠

For investors: Zillow’s September 2026 rent index showed typical rent up 8.3% year over year in San Juan Capistrano, alongside the lowest condo median of these three cities. Rent growth and purchase price are only part of an investment analysis; evaluate the specific property and its costs.

Frequently asked questions ❓

Which South Orange County city has the lowest home prices right now?

San Juan Capistrano had the lowest citywide median sale price in the Redfin rolling three-month data ending October 2026: $1,426,508. Its condo and co-op median was $944,743, and its townhouse median was $809,950, based on three townhouse sales.

Are home prices in San Clemente, Dana Point and San Juan Capistrano still rising?

Yes. Redfin’s year-over-year city median sale prices were up 13.0% in San Clemente, 9.9% in Dana Point, and 7.5% in San Juan Capistrano.

What are mortgage rates in November 2026?

Freddie Mac reported a national average 30-year fixed rate of 7.18% and a 15-year fixed average of 6.57% as of November 5, 2026. Your offered rate may differ.

Which city is best for first-time buyers in South Orange County?

There is no single best fit for every buyer. San Juan Capistrano had the lowest citywide median and growing inventory, which may offer more options to compare. Your budget, property type, location preferences, and total monthly costs should guide the decision. 🔎

Data sources: Redfin Data Center, rolling three-month periods ending October 2026, updated November 2026; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, November 5, 2026; Realtor.com Economic Research, October 2026 report published November 4 and weekly update published November 5; Zillow rent index, September 2026. 📊

For local guidance, property searches, recent sale information, or a home value estimate, Chris Walker and Walker Real Estate Group are available to assist you throughout the process. Serving San Clemente, Dana Point, and San Juan Capistrano. 🤝